![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Jays and junk
Nov. 4th, 2015 09:26 pm
Currently at Bancroft: 3. High today: 20, which is the kind of thing that makes me wish that EC had records back further than 1997 at Bancroft, but in any event, I'm pretty sure that today was the nicest day in the history of November.
Sometime in the early middle of the season, probably after the first eleven-game winning streak but while the Jays were still floundering around the fringes of contention, I was saying that this is a not just a good offensive team but a historically good offensive team, and it would be pretty amazing if it missed the playoffs (or even finished under .500, which it threatened to do for more than half the season). In the end, the Jays beat the MLB average for runs per game by 1.25. The last team to beat the MLB average by 1.25 or more was the 1976 Reds. The last team before that was the 1953 Dodgers. (Ted Williams Red Sox teams did it twice; the Yankees did it through most of the '30s and a bit of the '20s. The '61 Yankees, incidentally, didn't even lead the majors in runs scored.)
When you're that much better than everyone else on offense, chances are you can score every which way, which is why it aggravates me to hear that the Royals beat the Jays in the ALCS because they know how to play small ball and move runners and whatnot. There is one thing the Royals were better at than the Jays this year: stealing bases. They stole 104 bases in 2198 opportunities. The Jays stole 88 in 2216. On the other hand, the Jays tied for best in the majors in not getting caught stealing: they were caught 23 times; the Royals were caught 34 times. But stolen bases aren't what people are generally talking about when they talk about how the Royals are better than the Jays; they're generally talking about sacrifice bunts and other productive outs--scoring runners from 3rd with less than two outs (which the Jays so glaringly failed to do in game 6 of the ALCS), or moving runners from second to third with no outs, by way of an out other than a sacrifice bunt. (Another thing you might be talking about if you got into it further is taking extra bases, which the Royals did in 44% of opportunities to the Jays' 38%. But on the other hand, the Jays took 182 bases on passed balls, wild pitches, fly balls, balks, and defensive indifference, while the Royals took 148.) According to Baseball Reference, the Jays made 212 productive outs (excluding sac bunts) in 580 opportunities this year. The Royals made 168 in 536 opportunities. Percentage-wise, the Jays out-productive-outed the Royals 37% to 31%. (Considering that the Jays, percentage-wise, got out considerably less than the Royals on the whole, this is pretty remarkable. You might take it to indicate that the Jays went out of their way to make productive outs quite a lot more than the Royals did.) The Jays scored runners from third with less than two outs in 55% of opportunities; the Royals did so in 51% of opportunities. (The team with the best record in baseball, the Cardinals, scored runners from third with less than two outs in 48% of opportunities.) The Jays had 36 successful sac bunts out of 51 attempts this year. The Royals had 34 out of 48. The Jays squeezed successfully twice; the Royals, never.
In the eyes of sour moralistic fans, the 2015 Jays were a team tinged with evil, and destined to meet with failure as their just desert, because they hit so many home runs. These fans assume that the Jays didn't do the little selfless things that moralistic fans approve of because they did so many of the big "selfish" things that moralistic fans disapprove of. They are wrong.
Sometime in the early middle of the season, probably after the first eleven-game winning streak but while the Jays were still floundering around the fringes of contention, I was saying that this is a not just a good offensive team but a historically good offensive team, and it would be pretty amazing if it missed the playoffs (or even finished under .500, which it threatened to do for more than half the season). In the end, the Jays beat the MLB average for runs per game by 1.25. The last team to beat the MLB average by 1.25 or more was the 1976 Reds. The last team before that was the 1953 Dodgers. (Ted Williams Red Sox teams did it twice; the Yankees did it through most of the '30s and a bit of the '20s. The '61 Yankees, incidentally, didn't even lead the majors in runs scored.)
When you're that much better than everyone else on offense, chances are you can score every which way, which is why it aggravates me to hear that the Royals beat the Jays in the ALCS because they know how to play small ball and move runners and whatnot. There is one thing the Royals were better at than the Jays this year: stealing bases. They stole 104 bases in 2198 opportunities. The Jays stole 88 in 2216. On the other hand, the Jays tied for best in the majors in not getting caught stealing: they were caught 23 times; the Royals were caught 34 times. But stolen bases aren't what people are generally talking about when they talk about how the Royals are better than the Jays; they're generally talking about sacrifice bunts and other productive outs--scoring runners from 3rd with less than two outs (which the Jays so glaringly failed to do in game 6 of the ALCS), or moving runners from second to third with no outs, by way of an out other than a sacrifice bunt. (Another thing you might be talking about if you got into it further is taking extra bases, which the Royals did in 44% of opportunities to the Jays' 38%. But on the other hand, the Jays took 182 bases on passed balls, wild pitches, fly balls, balks, and defensive indifference, while the Royals took 148.) According to Baseball Reference, the Jays made 212 productive outs (excluding sac bunts) in 580 opportunities this year. The Royals made 168 in 536 opportunities. Percentage-wise, the Jays out-productive-outed the Royals 37% to 31%. (Considering that the Jays, percentage-wise, got out considerably less than the Royals on the whole, this is pretty remarkable. You might take it to indicate that the Jays went out of their way to make productive outs quite a lot more than the Royals did.) The Jays scored runners from third with less than two outs in 55% of opportunities; the Royals did so in 51% of opportunities. (The team with the best record in baseball, the Cardinals, scored runners from third with less than two outs in 48% of opportunities.) The Jays had 36 successful sac bunts out of 51 attempts this year. The Royals had 34 out of 48. The Jays squeezed successfully twice; the Royals, never.
In the eyes of sour moralistic fans, the 2015 Jays were a team tinged with evil, and destined to meet with failure as their just desert, because they hit so many home runs. These fans assume that the Jays didn't do the little selfless things that moralistic fans approve of because they did so many of the big "selfish" things that moralistic fans disapprove of. They are wrong.
