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So approximately the very next day after my last post, I discovered this, the abstract of the doctoral thesis of Mark Carney, which holy hell does it ever really tie the room together:

We design and conduct a series of cross-section regression tests to determine the relationship between competition and national competitiveness. We find that an increase in domestic competition, even in countries with open markets, is associated with improved national competitiveness. Combining our study with existing work, we find that at all levels of inquiry (the nation, the industry and the firm); competition is correlated with competitiveness.

Inspired in part by Porter (1990), we develop three original theories to explain the positive association between domestic rivalry and competitiveness. First, extending Fudenberg and Tirole (1983), we develop a model in which production is characterised by learning-by-doing and spillovers which flow more rapidly domestically than internationally. Using calibrated comparative statics, we demonstrate that increasing domestic competition improves domestic firms' cost competitiveness and national welfare. We modify our basic model to show that increasing domestic competition is as effective as Brander and Spencer subsidies in garnering international oligopoly rents. Second, we argue that the stock market compares corporate performance to determine the degree of managerial myopia. With an original model, we demonstrate that such comparative performance evaluation is more likely to be effective if firms are domestic rivals. Finally, we create an original model to show how differentiated competitors encourage the creation of industry-specific human capital by spreading the earnings risks of graduates. We show that the avoiding human capital hold-up may provide an incentive to firms to license their products, and we solve for the optimal licence fees.

We conclude by noting the primary implications: strict anti-trust enforcement, with a guarded preference for foreign acquirers over domestic ones.
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Ironically this post of mine from 2011 turns out to be--I mean ironically because it's one of the I guess many in which I say out loud that I really don't know what I'm doing here--one of the more compelling points for the position that doing whatever I was (uh, have been?) doing in this thing over the years was (uh ... is?) not a complete and utter waste of time. (I mean of my time, no guarantees expressed or implied about anyone else's, quite the opposite in fact I'm sure.) Which is to say I'm glad to have this record that I was irritated by Mark Carney, for a vague mist of reasons that have a lot to do with why I will still never vote for anyone in his ballpark unless it somehow comes down to a stark choice between them and the outright bad shit to their right (which reminds me again what a horrendous idea separating the executive from the legislature turns out to be in practice: the economic events of the last week or so are awfully reminiscent of those that led to the lettuce's outlasting Liz Truss, but the American way of electing a king means cooler heads (!!--nice job brain if you somehow did that unconsciously on purpose) simply cannot prevail in their case), going on fourteen years ago. (It's also interesting to look back at that time and see that Carney in Canada was on the leading edge of a watershed in monetary policy: it turned out you could nail interest rates at 0 indefinitely and not cause significant inflation. It's also funny in that regard that my irritation with Carney had to do with his frustration that his low interest rate policy was having too much effect on the demand side, not by increasing inflation (except in housing prices; arguably Canada is still stuck in the Carney housing bubble) but by increasing consumer debt to dangerous levels, when what he was really after was to stimulate supply. And interestingly also you now see progressive economists like Jim Stanford arguing that raising interest rates has an inflationary effect, not only in an obvious way by raising the cost of carrying debt but in a, well, also obvious but traditionally underacknowledged way, namely by stifling supply across the board. Which is to say, I guess, everyone is a supply-sider now (although Stanford for a long time worked for the Canadian Auto Workers/Unifor, and no one in labour is so bought into the supply side of things as autoworkers.)) [ETA: one other funny thing about that 2011 post: the reference to savings accounts, which--in the sense meant there, which is the sense that "savings accounts" has had for most of the history of that term--are things that just don't seriously exist anymore. I keep thinking these days, this lately is (isn't it?) the first serious stock market decline in which most everyone who has "savings" has them largely in the stock market. That, you would think, would have certain practical implications.]

What I've been meaning to write up in here for a couple of months now is something on Foucault and neoliberalism, after finally having been compelled by uh all this to read his neoliberalism lectures from the late '70s. The basic points, at least off the top of my head right now, that I would want to address if I ever got around to it (beyond the meta-point that Foucault may not be the guy you necessarily want to get this history from; contrary to his reputation among people who know nothing about him he's an extraordinarily meticulous scholar, but he's also a rather extreme and meandering generalist (so much for "the specific intellectual" eh)) are these:

1. Neoliberalism in its roots is not the political morality, founded on a commitment to a certain conception of freedom, which it has manifested as since Thatcher and Reagan but a political economics, founded on (a) a skeptical epistemology of political economy (just like the more specific 20th-century "neoconservatism" with its "unintended consequences", with which "neoliberalism" was confusingly synonymous before "neoconservatism" was convoluted into meaning "supporting the Iraq war"), on which rests (b) the central practical principle that prices set by competition (not necessarily "free" competition, as freedom is sometimes in conflict with competition, such that the state has to intervene to ensure a sufficiently competitive economy--this finally explained to me why, as I learned to my puzzlement in the '90s, certain figures on the otherwise apparently libertarian right were in favour of things like antitrust laws) being the means to the most efficient production and distribution of goods and services in the interests of serving the prosperity of the state as a whole.

2. "There is no socialist governmentality." I suspect Foucault said this as a provocation meant to provoke something like "what about China" as a response from his students, but he also means it completely seriously, and while I would have to put some effort into unpacking what it means, it has shaken my view of what's possible in the "West" or whatever we are now calling whatever that is that we are calling something like that. There's a bunch of scholarship about whether or not Foucault himself became a neoliberal and a promoter, however ambiguously, of neoliberalism in the late '70s and clearly if that question were to be put to him directly, and he were to answer it directly, he would say we are all neoliberals now.

3. As a specific aspect of that Foucault addresses the question why Marxist arguments about the exploitation of labour have no purchase on labourers in the West: he says this is because they don't conceive of themselves as natural possessors of labour power forced to sell it for less than it's worth but as entrepreneurs who reap returns on investments made in themselves. I don't know that this is necessarily the right way of putting things at all let alone the whole story, but something like this is something.

The funny thing about points 2 and 3 is that they tie in directly to my first plan for my MA thesis on Foucault, about how socialist or whatever revolution in the West was impossible without a different kind of--in Foucault's term--subjectivation. Of course, as a 22-year-old theoretical political radical what I wanted to do was to figure out how to carry out that different kind of subjectivation. Which I'm pretty sure Foucault would have thought was pretty dumb.
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Time for the now-annual ebird roundup! I counted 138 species of birds in 2024, beating 2023's record of 116. Not sure I really tried a lot harder or went more places but I had some pretty good luck (which suggests that in order to set a new record again this year I will have to try harder and/or go more places, uh oh). Here's my top 15 of 2024 by number of checklists each species appeared on, with last year's position and number in the brackets:

1. Black-capped chickadee: 382 (1, 351)
2. American goldfinch: 323 (2, 330)
3. White-breasted nuthatch: 312 (3, 270)
4. Blue jay: 300 (T7, 167)
5. American crow: 230 (5, 201)
6. Common raven: 215 (T7, 167)
7. Downy woodpecker: 186 (4, 249)
8. Hairy woodpecker: 176 (6, 178)
9. Mourning dove: 163 (9, 139)
10. American robin: 142 (10, 119)
11. Purple finch: 134 (12, 97)
12. Song sparrow: 126 (-, 64)
13. Eastern phoebe: 111 (13, 93)
14. Red-eyed vireo: 109 (11, 101)
15. Dark-eyed junco: 105 (-, 65)

Falling off from last year's top 15: chipping sparrow (14, 83) and red-breasted nuthatch (15, 68). Although red-breasted nuthatch was only on one fewer checklist this year than in 2023 it was all the way down to 20th, which uh kind of suggests that I did in fact try harder in 2024, or at least more, hmm. The chipping sparrow count was down to 57 (knocking it all the way down to 26th), which I'd chalk up to them just happening not to nest around the house this year. Really the most notable drop-off from 2023 to 2024 was a bird that hasn't been in the top 15 since 2022: ruby-throated hummingbird was down from 66 to 49, which may or may not be entirely because I didn't bother at all with hummingbird feeders. Song sparrow rejoining the top 15 after a year off I'd attribute to my walking around more in the bush behind the house near a little pond where they were nesting. The big jump in blue jays is entirely because I put up a new platform feeder that I supply with peanuts. No idea what's with the jump in juncos. I thought red-bellied woodpecker--which has become a daily regular at my suet feeder this fall/winter after I'd never seen one in my life until maybe five years ago--might make the top 15 but it turns out it was 19th at 76 (behind northern flicker at 79, mallard at 85, and eastern wood pewee at 90, so now this top 15 is a top 20). Top bird of prey in 2024 was red-shouldered hawk at 63.

Birds I counted on ebird for the first time in 2024: great horned owl, white-winged scoter, ruddy duck, northern pintail, American wigeon, northern shoveler, tundra swan, white-winged crossbill, fox sparrow, blackpoll warbler, common nighthawk, red-headed woodpecker, ring-necked pheasant (in Detroit), and savannah sparrow (in New Brunswick). Everything from the ruddy duck through the tundra swan I saw on one pretty spectacular fall day for ducks in Kingston. Also finally counted my second eastern bluebird, after creating my ebird account in the first place back in 2018 to record my first-ever bluebird sighting. Maybe this'll be the winter I get around to making a bluebird box.
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No you fell asleep in my chair
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This is Raggedy Bob. Raggedy Bob will be the muse of NaDruWriNi.

One Kilkenny down--time to get serious.
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The Does-Anyone-Know-What-Day-It-Is Edition!

You know the drill: time to get fueling!

But first: time to carve the muse....
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OK Dick Cheney on Team Blue is one thing (wasn't Richard Perle always a registered Democrat?) but a "Dominion voting machines are rigged in favour of Democrats" narrative um wow.

This is an example of the kind of thing I refrain from saying on twitter [sic] because OBVIOUSLY the no religion or politics at the dinner table rule should be strictly adhered to on social media. (I mean, no opinions, man, about those things--like I finally figured out to say to my students (for what it was worth, i.e., well, you know) when they asked how much of their essays should be their "opinion": none of it should be your opinion; the whole thing should be your insight).

While I'm here I guess I will note that we're getting toward the end of the League Championships Series and the only approximations of stud starting pitchers left standing are Gerrit Cole and Sean Manaea. This displeases me.

Anyway, two weeks 'til NaDruWriNi, see you soon.
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Before it gets too far away: I concluded my Lenten bible-reading this year with the gospel of John and I noticed another one of those things that hit you like a hammer that's previously somehow gone right through you unresisted: the story of Jesus healing the blind man in chapter 9 starts with a bit where the disciples ask him whether the man himself or his parents sinned so that he was born blind, which is an obviously weird question that John misdirects you from, Plato-style, by having Jesus say neither, he was born blind so that the workings of God can show themselves in him. I've noticed the weird question before but what I hadn't noticed is that immediately before that, at the end of the preceding chapter, "the Jews" are about to stone Jesus because he has said, in response to their asking how Abraham could be glad to see him doing his stuff as he has told them Abraham is, "before Abraham was born, I am". This is one of several times in the gospel of John that Jesus invokes God's "I am" from the burning bush in reference to himself. The whole end of chapter 8 has to do with the wibbly-wobbliness of God-time, eternity, the time which not only God/Jesus but all who "believe" inhabit (another repeated phrase in John: "an hour is coming, and has come"), and chapter 9 picks right up again with that. (It goes on to have Jesus say that he has come to make the blind see and the seeing blind, and it turns out that being able to see is a curse (analogous to how people from Joshua to Paul say that being under the Mosaic law is a curse) because only those who can see can sin. Well... then.)

But absolutely the most Plato moment in the whole bible is when Jesus says to his guys in chapter 16 that he has spoken to them in "figurative language" (as the NASB translates παροιμίαις, which you could literally translate as "beside-the-ways") but "an hour is coming" when he'll speak plainly--and they immediately say, oh, now we know you're speaking plainly! Oh no, oh no, oh well.
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Completely by accident I discovered yesterday that Howard Adelman had died... a bit over six months ago. I was taken aback that I didn't know for so long, but not very surprised at the news itself. One of his more recent returns to blogging was from a hiatus due to a cardiac arrest. Howard was not immortal even if he was the most godlike (not to say Godlike, and no doubt Howard could speak to the difference better than anyone) person I have ever personally experienced. Here's something I wrote sitting in a class of Howard's in I guess 2000 or so... )
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Seems like about time for another bird round-up, so hey why not fly in the face of the current fashion of doing year-in-review things at least two weeks before the end of the year (I'm not sure to what extent Spotify is to blame for this but I am definitely blaming Spotify) and do a year-in-review thing of the actual year. (If we had an actual culture in our society we would be well on our way to instituting a year-end uh Saturnalia in which nothing you do counts because it's outside the scope of all years-in-review and so will never have officially happened.) Anywut, how about let's do my top 15 birds of 2023, by number of ebird checklists they appeared on (with their places on my last all-time top-15 round-up in brackets):

1. Black-capped chickadee, 351 (1)
2. American goldfinch, 330 (2)
3. White-breasted nuthatch, 270 (3)
4. Downy Woodpecker, 249 (8)
5. American Crow, 201 (5)
6. Hairy Woodpecker, 178 (6)
T7. Blue Jay, 167 (4)
T7. Common Raven, 167 (9)
9. Mourning Dove, 139 (7)
10. American Robin, 119 (10)
11. Red-eyed vireo, 101 (12)
12. Purple Finch, 97 (11)
13. Eastern Phoebe, 93 (13)
14. Chipping Sparrow, 83 (-)
15. Red-breasted nuthatch, 68 (-)

Birds in the previous top 15 not in this one: ruby-throated hummingbird (14) and dark-eyed junco (15), but they were 16th and 17th in 2023, right behind red-breasted nuthatch with 66 and 65, so. Song sparrow was 18th at 64, and then brown creeper 19th at 59 but coming on strong because I learned (sort of, I will have to re-learn) to pick out their songs and calls this year, and, y'know, they're creepy, so they're a lot easier heard than seen (although their creeping is pretty distinctive if you notice it--for some reason, unlike nuthatches, the smaller red-breasted ones of which you could otherwise easily mistake them for at a distance, they only creep upward).

Downy woodpecker jumped way up the list last year, and leapfrogged hairy woodpecker, apparently because they presumably randomly happened to nest near the house so were around consistently through the summer. Mourning dove continued to slide in the early part of the year but has started coming back lately to the point of becoming a near-daily regular again. Blue jays I'm guessing ebbed with their food supply; apparently it was a great year for acorns a couple of years ago--well, I guess 2020/21, before the dreaded moths-formerly-known-as-the-thing-they-were-formerly-known-as (which suffered a plague after wreaking most of their destruction in 2022 and were not a thing in 2023) showed up en masse--and there's lots of oak trees around here. Chipping sparrows, probably I've just gotten better at picking out their calls, but also maybe they've been randomly nesting around here more the last couple of years.

Birds I recorded on ebird for the first time in 2023: surf scoter, cliff swallow (in Detroit), least flycatcher, mourning warbler, willow flycatcher, magnolia warbler, Lincoln's sparrow, green heron (in Buffalo), bohemian waxwing, Cooper's hawk, and snow bunting. Of those, Cooper's hawk I had almost surely seen before but hadn't learned to ID (and specifically to differentiate from sharp-shinned hawk); there was a family nesting a ways back in the bush from the house last summer. Snow bunting I had definitely seen at least once before, before I was ebirding; bohemian waxwings I'd seen and IDed on two pre-ebird occasions. Of the rest, green heron is the only one I'd guess I'd never seen or heard before (and oddly for a heron it was in a tree when I saw it); surf scoter I think I may possibly have IDed once some years ago; the others aren't particularly rare so there's a good chance they've been around me without my having any way of knowing it.

So them's the birds, ayup.
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Seems fitting to post the annual Christmas card on Holy Innocents day this year. Also seems fitting that the bird kinda looks like it might be lying dead on the ground.

I wrote a short poem last month about Abraham's speaking up to God on behalf of the innocents--if that's what he's doing. He could be only trying to save his own family. Obviously it's a better, more instructive story if he's engaging God in moral argumentation, appealing to God's own better nature, and since this is mythology we're dealing with here, whatever is the better story is the story. Not, of course, just the better story according to our own views, extrinsic to it--as bears repeating over and over God names Israel after struggle with himself. Israel is appointed by God to struggle with God.

Something sits uneasily with me about citing Abraham's speaking up for the innocents, though, and what it is is the thing Kurt Vonnegut says, of course ironically but still, in his spoof disclaimers in a couple of his books that no names have been changed to protect the innocent because the innocent are protected by God Almighty (Sirens of Titan) or angels (Bagombo Snuff Box) "as a matter of heavenly routine". Who you've really got to look out for--in a way, though how exactly do you want to play this out?--are the guilty. Jesus Christ himself is a little ambivalent on this point--the gospel of Matthew starts out all burn em all but the gospel of Luke, for all its faults, ends up heavier on the go and sin no more. When I was a secret evangelical Christian kid it dawned on me one day that capital punishment is impermissible because you've got to give everyone every possible chance to repent and be saved. Framed differently, there's still something very right about that to me--though more than that there is the absolute unholiness of killing that that other strain in the Hebrew bible speaks to, requiring you to take your animals to the temple to be slaughtered because all killing calls for atonement. God, apparently, needs to be reminded of that, too.

A funny thing relating to Israel's being appointed to struggle with God only just struck me about a week ago. I'd gone back to Samuel to look at the founding of Israel as a state, a kingdom. Somehow it had stuck with me ever since I was a kid--from Sunday School or children's bibles?--that God didn't like the idea of Israel having a king but went along with it anyway. What I never understood about that until recently is that the territories settled by the Israelites were only united into a state once Saul was appointed king over them all. So if God doesn't like the idea of the Israelites having a king, he also doesn't like the idea of the Israelites being unified into a state. God tells Samuel, don't worry about it, it isn't you they want to replace with a king, it's me (and it occurs to me just now that there's an echo of the Tower of Babel in this--and also there's an inversion of the golden calf incident, where it isn't God they want to replace, it's Moses). And the thing that struck me last week or so is that once God finally lets the third king, Solomon, build him a temple, God and his priests are hardly part of the story anymore. The temple is built and then it's largely forgotten (though sometimes pillaged for its riches), and God is largely forgotten along with it. This is the thing: the temple, it turns out, is the prison in which God is confined. I mean, it struck me to put it that way; already for I guess years I'd been working up the thought that the problem with the theory of worship or whatever you call it that's developed in the Hebrew bible is that that it de-sacralizes everything outside the temple by banning "sacrifice under every green tree" and whatnot. And this idea that the Israelites have done their god a disservice and dishonour by confining him to the temple is just what Rabshakeh is getting at when he says on behalf of the invading Assyrians that God--who he claims has sent the Assyrians to destroy Judah--can't be expected to save Judah when its king, Hezekiah, has removed all of God's high places and altars. Hezekiah is one of the good kings according to the authors of the books of Kings and Chronicles because he restores temple exclusivity, but according to Rabshakeh this is exactly backwards, and why not suppose he has a point?

And then on Christmas Eve it struck me that Christianity replicates this phenomenon: Jesus Christ is the person in which God is confined. It does so even in the face of the gospel of Luke reminding you, in its genealogy of Jesus, that all are descended ultimately from "Adam, the son of God". But you were never meant to just accept these things.
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I just realized I got confused about what year it is today and thought it's 2024. LOOK I'M BASICALLY 50. Why did I open this though, uhhhh... fuck I have completely forgotten, but at least I have switched to Mill Street Organic, please stand by.
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Wouldn't it be great if the clocks went back to like 3 pm last Tuesday though.. no that would not be so great, I mean for a lot of people that would be terrible, but like 3 pm yesterday, that would be wondrful wouldn't it

(Writers Tears still, uh oops my screen just went huge uh)
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The other day I re-read Stephen Mitchell's introduction to his translation (or whatever it is, maybe it's an actual translation, maybe he reads Hebrew, I don't know) of the book of Job... the thing I always remember about it is the idea that Satan disappears because Satan is assimilated back into God but it turns out that idea is Carl Jung's? And is sort of mentioned only in passing. Anyway the thing about Mitchell is--well, if you've heard of Stephen Mitchell it's probably something to do with Eastern philosophy. I first heard of him when I bought his tranlation (or whatever it is, I don't kthink it's an actual translation) of the Tao Te Ching some thirty years ago (it was probably ten years later that I bought Ursula Le Guin's not-translation of the Tao Te Ching, which familiarized me with the concept (Heidegger did it too, in German, of Chuang Tzu maybe?--not "published" and presumably never will be (ugh but when they run out of other stuff in his desk drawers they probably will), but given all the HEAVY HEAVY stuff we all know Heidegger says about language, isn't it amazing he produced versions of texts in languages he didn't read, maybe that might be some indication y'all oughta lighten up, I dunno), but it was only sometime in the last few years that I learned that Mitchell doesn't actually read all the languages of the books he produces "translation" of either. Um I got lost in the parenthesis there, sorry, I am drunk, uh... but where have we strayed to? Oh right: Mitchell I guess is basically Buddhist or something, anyway, he seems to be saying that the point of Job is that nothing matters, fucking Buddhist nihilism, EXCEPT: ... ??? ...that all of that tremendous suffering is exactly to demonstrate to Job that... THIS! WHAT???

I mean I still don't buy it. Fuck that. No really, fuck that. You don't need to go through all that to get to that point. Whatever paltry but soul-shattering painful shit I have gone through did not get me to that. I got to that when I was twelve years old or whatever lying on my bed staring at the ceiling. Seriously. And then I forgot about it, "in the grip of an ideology". And then I remembered again. And suffering DISTRACTS EVERYONE FROM IT. So fuck that shit.

But I mean I take the point, sure, maybe Buddhism has a point, I don't know, sure, maybe, I dunno. Fuck it though.
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NaDruWriNi 2024 muse

This is Mx. Flips. Mx. Flips will be the muse of NaDruWriNi.

OK like I said I feel late, and rushed, for no good reason, this is definitely more of a hack job than I would've liked and uh I dunno Mx. Flips is actually kinda great, in person, I kinda love Mx. Flips.
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Good thing the clocks go back tonight cuz I'm feeling late for no good reason at all. Well, maybe because I'm sleepy (uh oh) but the clocks going back aren't going to help with that. Unless... I believe hard enough? Anyway, got the fire going, and gone straight to the big guns this year, starting with Writers' Tears. Now let's manifest that muse....
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Almost time to get fuelling!

More immediately, time to get my carcass to the cottage, put on the fire, and magic up this year's muse....
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There's a thing people I otherwise generally like and respect on the left keep saying that bugs me, which goes like this: "Food prices are too high because grocery chains are taking too much profit." It doesn't bug me if it's said in contrast to something like "food prices are high because supply-chain issues have raised costs for grocers"--in that context, it's correct, and a good point (and maybe a corrective to my tending to think that doing things like escalating trade wars with China is going to lead to a lot more inflation[1]). It bugs me when it's said (more or less implicitly, because the more explicitly it's said the more apparently nonsensical it is) in contrast to the idea that inflation generally and food inflation in particular is caused by people having too much money to spend, and the way to remedy that is to indirectly take money out of people's pockets, mainly by raising interest rates (which will theoretically, among other consequences, increase unemployment). It bugs me in that case because it boils down to saying that what's causing high food prices is not that people are paying grocers too much for their groceries but that grocers are being paid too much by people for their groceries.

For corporations (which are always seeking to maximize profits!--"corporate greed" is a feature of capitalism; treating it as a special character flaw is nonsense, and moralizing about it is, in principle, silly, even if it's not generally good for business if your customers are mad at you) to make their "excess profits", two things need to be the case. (1) People have to have the money to fund those profits. If people actually couldn't afford groceries, prices would come down, especially since the high profit margins mean there's room for grocers to lower prices and still make a profit (i.e., grocers are not currently close to being faced with a dilemma between selling at a loss and not selling at all). (2) There isn't enough competition among grocers to force profit margins down. Thinking through this part of it I realize that the trouble is that competition has to be artificially created because the effect of competition is to lower profits overall; companies merge (there are deceptively many grocery store brands, as opposed to companies, in Canada, and it strikes me now that part of the appeal for companies of maintaining multiple brands must be that it fosters an illusion of competition) in part because they're more profitable when they're not competing against each other. And while it's relatively easy for governments to mandate the continuation of currently existing competition (see, currently: telecom providers in Canada, book publishers in the US), it's very difficult (after the great break-up of the state-owned or state-protected monopolies around the 1980s) to mandate the creation of new competition (see: telecom providers in Canada). Under neoliberal conditions governments will only try to do so indirectly by removing barriers to new competitors entering the market, which may or may not be effective in the short term and any effectiveness of which will fade over time unless governments actively prevent the merger of new competitors with the companies with which they compete. Anyway, there's only so much removing barriers you can do before you're out of significant barriers to remove (never mind that there might be good policy reasons for some barriers).

A much less crude, much more direct, maybe more effective way, I'd imagine with fewer unintended consequences, of achieving the desired effect of controlling inflation by reducing the money supply would be tax increases. From a policy perspective the ideal thing would be to target tax increases at relatively wealthy over-spenders who can more easily afford to take the hit. In practice, finding a nimble way to pull off the targeting might be impossible, but the reason it just isn't done at all, targeted or otherwise, is that deliberately making people poorer is not very good for your prospects of remaining in government (in fact, speaking generally, nobody thinks they can afford to take any hit; you don't have to read any paper or whatever for very long to notice that lots of people making well into six figures feel like they're barely scraping by); if you're in government, especially a democratic government, you'd better offload that job to the supposedly apolitical central bank (although the supposition that central banks are apolitical has been under attack from the left since at least the '80s, and now since Trump is also under attack from the right (such that centre-lefties now have to be careful to criticize central banks without undermining them altogether such that national currencies are replaced with bitcoin or whatever and governments are put right out of the economics business)). But if you're the kind of lefty who won't go so far as to advocate tearing capitalism right down, all you can really do is make that political non-starter of an argument--which is different from the argument that you need to tax the wealthy more heavily in order to fund whatever social goods, or even to rebalance economic power so that the very wealthy can't control the means of political discourse etc.: the argument you need to make with regard to inflation is that you need to tax the relatively wealthy (including a very large number of relatively politically active people who very much do not regard themselves as wealthy) simply so that they have less money to spend--or else just, more or less uselessly [2], moralize about it.

[1] This is obviously a major problem, though, and may indirectly contribute to food inflation: if there are Chinese-made things you would have bought except they're either unaffordably priced or unavailable because we're having a trade war with China, then you now have the money you would have spent on those things available to spend on other things, such as groceries. Actually the more I think about this the less obvious it is that any correction is needed to my tendency to blame inflation mainly on supply pressures due to the breakdown of globalization (which I have mixed feeling about for a variety of reasons (though trying to grow my own food has done a lot to beat my localist prejudices out of me)).

[2] Again with the caveat that it's not generally good for business if your customers are mad at you, though if they still want what you're selling, can't get it from anyone they're not also mad at, and would rather pay what you're charging than not have it, how much difference is it going to make?

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Currently under my porch: 0.7. Currently at Belmont Lake: 1.1. High there today: 1.3. Supposed to get our first real cold of the winter tomorrow night, but then back to slop again next week... looking like we might get through January without touching -20.
cincinnatus_c: loon (Default)
Here's a feature of practical reasoning that I think about a lot, which is somewhere in the neighbourhood of the lottery paradox but has nothing in particular to do with it (though every time I think about it much I have to go look at that lottery paradox article again): suppose, say, there's an activity, like riding in the back of a pick-up truck, that will kill, say, over the course of an average century, one out of a hundred thousand people--or, to turn the emotional screw, children--who engage in it. Supposing this, in a town of a thousand people, most likely no one will die engaging in it in anyone's lifetime, while in a city of three million people a bunch of people will. If you live in the city you will periodically hear about people in your city being killed by it, while in the town you will never hear about people in your town being killed by it. Given this, in the city, you might tend to perceive that this is a very dangerous activity; in the town, you might tend to perceive that it is completely safe.

I think where this comes up, practically, most often (apart from things much like riding in the backs of pick-up trucks), is rural vs. urban expectations of being victimized by crime. In the country you leave your doors unlocked because nobody around you ever gets burgled. But no one around you ever gets burgled because, relative to the city, there's hardly anyone around you. (But if you read the crime reports in the regional papers, you see that people in the wider region you live in, as opposed to your neighbourhood or town, get burgled a lot.)

I also think of a conversation I once had with an older person about canning--I said something about home canning of certain vegetables, like tomatoes or something, being unsafe; she was surprised and said she'd never had any problem with it. If you're getting your information on canning from your mother (etc.) and/or your own experience, certain things will appear safe to you because the odds of something going (catastrophically) wrong are such that nothing is likely to ever go wrong for you or even for your whole family. But if you're getting your information from someone on the internet, they might have to tell you that those things are unsafe and advise you not to do them, because their audience is big enough that something will go catastrophically wrong for at least one person and possibly many people who try them (even following directions perfectly).

Put in lottery terms: suppose there's a standard 6/49 lottery, such that any ticket's odds of winning are one in nearly 14 million, and it sells a hundred tickets a week. This lottery would produce a winner, on average, once every nearly 2700 years. Obviously no one except the most magical of thinkers would play such a lottery; no one would win in most people's lifetimes. But the odds of winning would be exactly the same as they are for the 6/49 lotteries we actually have.

So, given this, you could say that the bigger your community (the definition of "community" here has to be specified in some way I'm not sure of offhand) is, the more things will seem unsafe to you. And if you are determined to prevent "just one x", how much you have to do to prevent just one x will depend on how many people under the potential influence of your preventative measures are susceptible to x. In the city, you have to ban riding in the back of pick-up trucks; in the town, maybe not--except that once the isolation of the town as a community breaks down, maybe you do, too, because now you have to be part of the wider effort to prevent "just one x" across that wider community.

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Currently at Belmont Lake: 5.2. High there today: 7.4. Currently under my porch: 4.2.
cincinnatus_c: loon (Default)
Science reporter: did you ever wonder how x does y? Let's ask this scientist!

Scientist: here are some things we know about x! Given these things, x could do y by z! But we haven't tested z, we don't know.

Science reporter: x does y by z! 🤯 But that's only a hypothesis. BUT ISN'T THIS COOL, X DOES Y BY Z

Public: DID YOU KNOW x does y by z
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