(1) The lottery _remains_ a bad idea, despite the fact that, with enough people, you now have the ability to advertise the bad idea so that it seems good.
(2) Canning* may _become_ a bad idea, although I'd expect that it becomes, on average, a bad idea because of technology - for food storage in general, not just canning. But that technology requires a large number of people.
The value of canning as a personal activity changes as you increase the population size, not so with the lottery - or with the pickup trucks.
The question I'd have, here, is how does the perceived value or risk changing line up with the availability heuristic: do you see something more to it, or not?
I should say that I think leaving doors unlocked where I am, right now, is perfectly fine - despite Y's misgivings. My Aunt M didn't lock her doors in a similar place in DC and doesn't in a more rural one in PA.*3 This was not true for NOLA, where I'd hear people trying my door every couple of months. So, I always locked my door.*4 I think people's subjective assessments are actually pretty good, before they are terrorized by headlines.
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* I remember that the USDA had a list of these kinds of "Don't Believe Your Grandmother" kinds of things. Some of them may be true in general - you risk e coli poisoning if you marinade your steak overnight. But they may have to do with changing standards - despite eating and drinking the same things, I tend to get e coli poisoning** when traveling while Y., coming from somewhere with lower food standards than the US, does not.
** Montezuma's Revenge, Deli Belly, etc. Now, to be culturally sensitive, traveler's diarrhea - blaming the victim is better than offending other people.
*3 But, paraphrasing John Le Carre, no thief in history's idea of the ideal haul is a shitload of books.
*4 And, if I forgot to lock my car door, it would smell like cigarettes when I started it up in the morning.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2023-01-01 03:03 am (UTC)(1) The lottery _remains_ a bad idea, despite the fact that, with enough people, you now have the ability to advertise the bad idea so that it seems good.
(2) Canning* may _become_ a bad idea, although I'd expect that it becomes, on average, a bad idea because of technology - for food storage in general, not just canning. But that technology requires a large number of people.
The value of canning as a personal activity changes as you increase the population size, not so with the lottery - or with the pickup trucks.
The question I'd have, here, is how does the perceived value or risk changing line up with the availability heuristic: do you see something more to it, or not?
I should say that I think leaving doors unlocked where I am, right now, is perfectly fine - despite Y's misgivings. My Aunt M didn't lock her doors in a similar place in DC and doesn't in a more rural one in PA.*3 This was not true for NOLA, where I'd hear people trying my door every couple of months. So, I always locked my door.*4 I think people's subjective assessments are actually pretty good, before they are terrorized by headlines.
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* I remember that the USDA had a list of these kinds of "Don't Believe Your Grandmother" kinds of things. Some of them may be true in general - you risk e coli poisoning if you marinade your steak overnight. But they may have to do with changing standards - despite eating and drinking the same things, I tend to get e coli poisoning** when traveling while Y., coming from somewhere with lower food standards than the US, does not.
** Montezuma's Revenge, Deli Belly, etc. Now, to be culturally sensitive, traveler's diarrhea - blaming the victim is better than offending other people.
*3 But, paraphrasing John Le Carre, no thief in history's idea of the ideal haul is a shitload of books.
*4 And, if I forgot to lock my car door, it would smell like cigarettes when I started it up in the morning.