Date: 2016-12-09 06:26 pm (UTC)
cincinnatus_c: (0)
It only just struck me that what I'm on about here is really a simplified version of the Monty Hall problem (simplified in that the choice is an x-or-not-x binary ... complicated in that neither A nor B is a Monty Hall who is always right) ... and holy crap, does the solution to the Monty Hall problem ever go from being counterintuitive to blindingly obvious if you drop the number of doors from three to two. I pick door one out of two doors; Monty tells me the car is not behind door two. Would I like to ... oh, but there's no door left to switch to, so the odds of my having picked the winning door must have just improved to 1 out of 1.

The trouble is, in real life, you never know whether it's really Monty telling you where the car isn't or just some internet troll fucking with you.
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