Bold prediction time!

Well, maybe actually a Nate Silver-style hedge instead: I'm gonna predict the NDP may do significantly better than projected by the pollsters, because the pollsters may be putting too low an estimate of turnout among 18-to-x-year-olds into their secret sauce. One reason to believe this may be the case: the last Pollara poll has slightly stronger intention-to-vote numbers for younger people than for older people. Of course, this may be because millennials are liars. Anyway, given what the pollsters are also assuming about vote distribution across ridings, the NDP can do significantly better than projected in the popular vote--say, win it by 2-5 points--while the PCs still win a majority of seats. But given that that assumption is mostly inferred from regional numbers and not derived directly from riding-specific polls, it could also easily be wrong.

In case you were wondering: there are no Green(e)*s, Brown(e)s, Black*s, or Red*s running in the Ontario election.

Currently at Havelock: 19.2. High today: 22.9.