Date: 2016-12-08 05:03 pm (UTC)
cincinnatus_c: (Default)
One point to be made here is that if someone who is evidently dumber than you disagrees with you, it should--unless that person is actually wrong more often than they're right on average--decrease, not increase, your confidence that you're right. (It strikes me that in a lot of cases, someone you think is dumber than you disagreeing with you will increase your confidence that you're right. But it also strikes me that there's probably a lot of psychological variation in this regard.)

Further elaboration: if you suppose that A and B are each wrong 10% of the time, then when they disagree they are each five times as likely to be wrong as they're used to. If you suppose that they're each wrong 1% of the time, then when they disagree they are each fifty times as likely to be wrong as they're used to.
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